The Bright Side, Inflation and Asia

By Jeff Kelly on June 9, 2023

The easiest thing in the world today is to be pessimistic. We can be sure the world is going to hell just by reading the news, looking at twitter, reading anything political or watching various news programs on the outlets available. I am always drawn to things showing the other side of the coin. This column below by Nick Kristof nails it – the world is getting better; and solutions to our toughest problems exist. It is time to redouble our efforts – and for media to celebrate the good, not simply focus on the bad. You may have heard of Sierra Leone as “the most dangerous place in the world to give birth.” No longer true: Deaths in pregnancy and childbirth have plunged 74 percent since 2000, according to United Nations figures. Over 90% of pregnant women now get prenatal care.

This May Be the Most Important Thing Happening in the World Today

In Nevada we have Republican governor, Democratic legislative leaders, and the casino industry banding together to help fund homeless services? Cats and dogs sleeping together for some common good.

Lawmakers unveil plan for $200 million homelessness fund to service Clark County

Another one from Mr. Kristof has Mississippi, one of the poorest states, improving in education.

The last place in America you might expect to find a model for education is Mississippi. It’s the state with the highest levels of child poverty, notorious for poor performance on almost every standard of well-being — yet hold on!

Over the last decade, Mississippi has risen from near the bottom in many education outcomes to about the middle, and by some measures even higher. Among children living in poverty, Mississippi fourth-graders tie for first place in reading performance nationwide and rank second in math. High school graduation rates there are now above average.

Quite a piece of good news.

Another piece of good news come from some of the markets in Asia. Japan has quietly traded to a 30 year high.

The Taiwan stock market has also staged a nice rally. This isn’t what you’d usually see if an invasion of Taiwan was imminent.

More good news has been seen on the inflation front. Despite the OPEC reductions in production, oil has stayed close to 70.00 a barrel. Down about 45% from highs reached in February of 2022. 

CHARTS FROM THE WEEK PAST

The small cap stocks, here represented by the S&P 600, have outperformed the S&P 500 by a large margin since June 1.

It’s a good thing to see these stocks rally. This is the first such outperformance by small caps in a long time.

Euro Zone PPI down 10.7% from peak.

Computer/Electronic make up over 40% of manufacturing construction.

Rental vacancies are moving higher.

This will eventually help inflation.

Inflows into Equity ETF’s have been muted despite the strong market performance.

This is bullish.

Bank failures at the highest levels since the great financial crisis.

The chart below shows the course of M2 (Money Supply) and inflation are closely aligned.

It shows inflation likely headed lower.

The Bank of America Global earnings model remains negative.

US bankruptcies year to date the highest since 2010.

Markets don’t care.

The Russell 2000 consistently rises between the Fed’s last hike and 1^st cut.

The increase in the Russell 2000 averages 11.6%.

Credit usage way up, savings way down.

Markets say, “all good”.

Record inflows into technology.

That didn’t take long.

Austin, Texas home price correction much quicker than the 2000’s.

Oil positions back to early Covid levels.

ISM reports on Business Backlog of orders aren’t encouraging.

The streak of 14 non-farm payrolls beating expectations is the longest in history.

The largest inflows into the Nasdaq of the year.

Other times have been close to tops.

Cat Machinery book-to bill falling along with inventory.

Homebuilder sentiment ticked up along with prices.

Single family home Inventories are higher than the last two years but not by much.

You don’t usually see equity and bond volatility moving in opposite direction but that’s the picture today.

OPEC has not criteria for cutting oil production.

They said they would cut in fall of 2008 when the crisis was in full swing. Prices fell so fast they never actually cut production because they needed the cash flow.

It would make sense for us to have a bit more focus on the things we are trying to control.

WEEKEND HOMEWORK

A list of the most popular AI websites:

3000+ Most Popular AI Websites Sorted By Monthly Traffic

Stunning stats: Guns Before “2007, people in the US never purchased more than 7M guns in a single year. By the time Barack Obama left office, the US was purchasing almost 17M guns a year.” In 2020 US consumers “bought almost 23M guns in a single year.”

Former Gun Company Executive Explains Roots of America’s Gun Violence Epidemic

Book bans are not good things.

PEN AMERICA INDEX OF SCHOOL BOOK BANS – FALL 2022

Books being rewritten without Authors consent.

Roald Dahl rewrites: edited language in books criticised as ‘absurd censorship’

The start of freight bankruptcies is happening now.

Forward Air’s tonnage declines cool as Q2 advances

Sportswriter Sally Jenkins has spent her entire adult life observing and writing about great coaches and athletes. With her engaging and expert prose, she has helped shape the way we view these talented sports icons. But somewhere along the line, she realized, they had begun to shape her.

Now, she presents the astonishing inner qualities in these same people that pushed them to overcome pressure, elevate their performances, and discover champion identities. Based on years of observing, interviewing, and analyzing elite coaches and playmakers, such as Bill Belichick, Peyton Manning, Michael Phelps, and more, Jenkins reveals the seven principles behind success:

-Conditioning
-Practice
-Discipline
-Candor
-Culture
-Resilience
-Intention

Discover how you can apply these same principles to your life and become your own champion. Colorful, inspirational, and accessible, The Right Call is the one stop shop for anyone wanting to learn how to effectively elevate themselves to greatness.

Ari Emanuel Is Never Indifferent

He turned a small Hollywood talent agency into a massive sports-and-entertainment empire. In a freewheeling conversation, he explains how he did it and why it nearly killed him.

FREAKONOMICS RADIO | EPISODE 544: Ari Emanuel Is Never Indifferent

Get outside! We may never pass this way again. Have a wonderful weekend.